A deep dive into Mariners Opening Day starter Logan Gilbert
By Jeffrey Nooney, edited by Charles Hamaker
Seattle, WA - In case you have not heard, the Mariners have given Logan Gilbert the nod to start on Opening Day for the first time in his career. Logan was selected over Luis Castillo, who has started the last two Mariners Opening Day games. Logan had a great season for the Mariners in 2024, despite his 9-12 record, as his pitching numbers across the board were dominant and it seemed that every time he was on the mound that the Mariners had an overwhelming chance to win the ballgame. “Sandwich cheese” threw 208.2 innings, which led the American League. He pitched to a 3.23 ERA and a 0.887 WHIP, the latter also led the American League. Gilbert struck out a career high 220 batters, while only walking 37. He finished 6th in Cy Young voting, and earned his first all-star appearance. Logan starting on Opening Day is not an indictment on Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo: Gilbert just had the best season of Seattle’s outstanding rotation last year. The Mariners have an embarrassment of riches in the starting pitching department, but Logan was simply the best of them last season. Castillo did miss some time due to injury towards the end of the year and has fallen off just a bit from his performance in previous seasons, so it isn’t the most surprising decision given that and Gilbert’s campaign in 2024. George Kirby will start the season on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, though the Mariners are hopeful his tint on the Injured List will be a short one, so that also takes him out of consideration.
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert during his first Spring Training start after being named the teams Opening Day starter, on the road against the San Francisco Giants on March 15th, 2025 at Scottsdale Stadium. (Photos by Eric Hiller for Circling Seattle Sports)
When you have a minute, go check out Logan’s baseball savant page. Gilbert was absolutely dominant in 2024 and might not get the most appreciation around MLB because his stuff isn’t the flashiest per se. His slider was his best rated pitch, with a pitching run value of 16. His slider was the 4th best slider in all of baseball last season, trailing only Dylan Cease of the San Diego Padres, 2024 NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves, and Houston Astros starter Ronel Blanco. Gilbert is not a one trick pony in any regard, though. His fastball pitching run vale was 12, where he ranked 18th in all of baseball, ahead of Tyler Glasnow, Mason Miller and Blake Snell. Logan throws six pitches, and none of them had a negative run value. None of them! It’s been a treat to see Gilbert further develop his secondary pitches, as his fastball has incredible value on it’s own as is the same for the other Mariners starters, but he struggled early into his time in the big leagues with his secondary stuff.
Logan stands at 6’6”, and uses every inch in his extension. His tall frame allows him to release the ball much closer to the plate than other pitchers, and the metrics show that. He is in the 100th percentile on extension. His savant page is full of red, which is good. Generally, red means good, blue means bad. The only knock on Gilbert’s savant page is his average exit velocity, which is in the 27th percentile. When you throw the ball hard, it gets hit hard. His average fastball velocity 96.6 MPH, which is in the 87th percentile. His average slider velocity is 88.4 MPH, almost 2.5 miles per hour faster than the league average for a right handed pitcher.
The overall numbers for Logan Gilbert are outstanding. He is obviously one of the best pitchers in all of baseball right now, but when you look at the home/road splits, there are some major differeneces in performance. At home last season, Logan was elite. He started 16 games, and pitched to a 2.49 ERA in 101.1 innings, striking out 115 along the way. His road ERA was noticeably different, as it was 3.94, almost a full 1.5 runs more. Opponents hit just .188/.223/.325/.550 against Logan at home, versus .204/.248/.379/.627 on the road. Still solid numbers, but there is a distinct change. His strikeouts to walk ratio at home was 7.67 compared to his ratio on the road of 4.77, almost a two strikeout difference. His strikeouts per 9 innings at home was 10.2, while his strikeouts per 9 on the road was just 8.8. While some players historically play better at home than on the road, this is not just a Logan Gilbert thing. All five starting pitchers were much better at home than they were on the road. Why is that?
Mike Petriello of MLB.com posted an article on T-Mobile Park being the most extreme park effects in all of baseball. If you have not seen his article, I highly suggest you check it out. He writes that T-Mobile Park is more extreme of a ballpark than Coors Field in Colorado, just in the opposite direction. Coors Field boosts offensive production by about 10%, while T-Mobile Park deflates production by almost 11%. Maybe it’s the batters eye, the vaunted marine layer, the elevation of just five feet above sea level, or perhaps a combination of them all. I think it will get even more extreme in the years to come, and ownership doesn’t seem interested in making any significant changes to the ballpark to work against those deflating factors. Hitting a baseball is getting harder every year, and with the shift in the game to be all about slugging, these numbers will continue to grow. There is not anything the pitchers can do about the park factors, but they have learned to embrace playing at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners bread and butter is the rotation, with an electric bullpen to finish games off when healthy.
At the end of the day, the team who scores the most runs in a game takes home the win, but it is much more than that. Run prevention is still key, and the Mariners do that so well at home whether that’s their ballpark and it’s factor, their incredible rotation, or more than likely the combination of the two. Logan Gilbert proved that he is the best among the best in the entire league, and that is why he has earned the Opening Day start. On a team with five “Ace level” pitchers though, this is really just an honor for one day. Teams still have to go up against the four other monsters in the rotation, and in my opinion, it does not matter which order you face them.
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Check out our previous Seattle Mariners articles here.
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