State of the Mariners – September 9th, 2024
By Brittany Wisner, edited by Charles Hamaker
Seattle, WA - The odds are certainly not in Seattle’s favor.
After a 5-5 road trip, the Mariners now stand 4.5 games behind the Houston Astros in the American League West and 3.0 games back in the Wild Card race with 18 games left to play. FanGraphs has their playoff odds down to 7.3% with a 3.6% chance of clinching the wild card and 3.7% chance to win the division.
Seattle began the Dan Wilson era on August 23rd with back-to-back series wins at home over the San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays. However, any potentially positive momentum was halted quickly on the first stop of their roadtrip, as they were once again outplayed by the worst team in their division and lost yet another series to the Los Angeles Angels. They left 28 men on base over the three game set and received relatively poor starting pitching performances from all three starters.
They then proceeded to lose the first two games of their four game set in Oakland, extending their losing streak to four games, three of which ended in walk-off fashion. It appeared that the Mariners had found a new rock bottom, something they’ve been quite good at the past few months and that many hoped would be broken with Wilson at the helm.
The team did begin to show some signs of life, most notably by the offense who scored a season high 16 runs the next day in a 16-3 win over Oakland. They would take the final two games against the Athletics and travel to St. Louis to win two of three games against the Cardinals.
While it is likely too little too late, there have been signs of an improved offensive approach over the last handful of games, something worth monitoring as we begin to look to the 2025 season. Let’s take a look at what have been some of the more noteworthy individual performances to occur since we last checked in on the squad on August 23rd - which, fittingly, also marked the beginning of Dan Wilson’s tenure as Mariners’ skipper.
Trending Up
Victor Robles
Victor Robles continues to be a spark plug for the Mariners offense, producing the team’s – and some of the league’s – best numbers at the plate over the last couple weeks. He has also been wreaking havoc on the basepaths.
Seattle Mariners outfielder Victor Robles homered in the teams series finale against the Tampa Bay Rays on August 28th, 2024. (Photos by Kevin Ng)
Since August 23rd, Robles has a .424 batting average, .487 on-base percentage and a .606 slugging percentage with five stolen bases. He has a 216 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR over that time according to FanGraphs, the most of any position player on the Mariners. He has also posted an impressively low strikeout rate of just 12.2%.
Among players across the league with at least 40 plate appearances, Robles’ .424 batting average and .487 on-base percentage since 8/23 are the best in all of Major League Baseball. His 216 wRC+ is fifth best and his 1.093 OPS is seventh best in the league over that time.
Robles has also, unfortunately, been hit by a pitch three times in the last week alone, all in the left elbow. The last pitch he wore – a 94 mph fastball from Erick Fedde – caused him to exit the game and miss the next two games as well. Hopefully, Robles is able to return to the Mariners’ lineup by Tuesday as he has become one of its most vital pieces.
Julio Rodríguez
While Rodríguez struggled both at the plate and in the field for a period of time after coming off the injured list, he has recently begun to look more and more like the player we know him to be. Flying around the bases and tracking down fly balls in center field with ease, it appears that Julio’s ankle is finally healthy, possibly contributing to his recent uptick in offensive production.
Seattle Mariners centerfielder Julio Rodríguez homered during the teams series finale against the Tampa Bay Rays on August 28th, 2024. (Photos by Kevin Ng)
Julio extended his hit streak to 11 games on Sunday, going 17-46 over that time with three home runs, nine RBI and just six strikeouts. Dating back to August 23rd, Julio is slashing .281/.373/.469 with a 146 wRC+. He has 0.7 fWAR and just a 16% strikeout rate since 8/23.
After a tough season, it would be encouraging to see Julio end on a strong note. Of things to monitor for the 2025 season, he is perhaps the most important.
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert shows emotion during the teams August 27th, 2024 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays at T-Mobile Park. (Photo by Kevin Ng)
Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert has continued his fantastic 2024 season, recently tossing a complete game against the Cardinals in which he surrendered just two runs on two hits. Unfortunately, the Mariners would go on to lose that game in heartbreaking fashion (again), as the offense could not muster a single run of support.
That has quite literally been the story of the season for Gilbert. He has received the lowest run support of any qualified starter in MLB this year, while also throwing the most quality starts of any qualified starter (22). His 0.88 WHIP is the best in baseball. According to FanGraphs Cy Young Award Projection model, Gilbert ranks fourth in the American League in Cy Young points and second in the league in FIP adjusted Cy Young points.
Logan Gilbert has a 7-11 record on the year.
Trending Down
Jorge Polanco
After a tough first half of the season in which he was the Mariners’ worst offensive producer, Jorge Polanco heated up significantly after the All-Star break, putting up some of the best numbers for the M’s in July and for much of August.
Unfortunately, Polanco has cooled back down, slashing just .087/.236/.217 in his last 55 plate appearances since August 23rd. His .087 batting average is the worst in baseball among all qualified hitters over that time. He has posted a 38 wRC+, ranking in the bottom 7% of all qualified hitters, per FanGraphs.
It is worth noting that Polanco has been battling a knee injury since early August. While it initially did not seem to affect him at the plate, it is certainly possible it has now begun to. It will be interesting to see how Dan Wilson uses Polanco moving forward.
Mitch Haniger
Another Mariner who came out of the All-Star break relatively hot, Mitch Haniger has begun to struggle again at the plate.
Haniger has a batting line of .179/.233/.179 in 30 plate appearances since August 23rd. He has recorded zero RBI and scored only two runs while running a strikeout rate of 33.3%.
Haniger’s OPS has now dropped to .625 on the season, beating out only Mitch Garver for the lowest OPS on the team. While Garver can at least provide the Mariners with defensive value as a backup catcher, Haniger’s best days in the outfield are far behind him. Looking forward into next season, it will be interesting to see how the Mariners’ front office handles Haniger’s $15.5 million player option that they will inevitably be on the hook for. Barring a stark offensive turnaround from Mitch in the final few weeks of this season, it will be difficult to justify a roster spot for Haniger in 2025.
J.P. Crawford
The road has not been a smooth one for J.P. Crawford in 2024. Between a rough start to the season and two ill-timed IL stints, Crawford has been unable to get the bat going, so far resulting in arguably the worst offensive year of his career. His current OPS of .635 is worse than his first year in the league in 2017 in which he had a .656 OPS in 87 plate appearances for Philadelphia.
We have not yet seen a turnaround and Crawford is slashing .147/.356/.176 since August 23rd with a 20.0% walk rate that is doing most of the heavy lifting in his on-base percentage. However, if we are looking for any signs of life, Crawford has a 42.3% hard hit rate over that time, the third highest on the team behind Luke Raley and Cal Raleigh. Crawford has struggled to hit the ball hard for much of this year.
Crawford has spoken highly of Mariners’ new hitting coach, Edgar Martínez, and the “simplified” approach Martínez has been preaching to the team. “He’s been huge,” Crawford said of Martínez after Friday night’s win in St. Louis. “He’s been helping everyone here and he’s been helping me out these last couple days. The advice he gives is so simple and it really works; way better than anything else.” Like many Mariner hitters, Crawford’s offensive production will be worth monitoring over the last few weeks as it could be an indication whether or not Martínez’s hitting philosophy is having any sort of effect.
Worth Monitoring
Along those lines, here is what the Mariners’ offense has done and where it ranks in the league since Dan Wilson and Edgar Martínez took over on August 23rd:
121 wRC+ (4th highest in league)
.330 wOBA (6th)
.347 OBP (4th)
11.6% BB% (1st)
24.2% K% (11th)
0.48 BB/K (3rd)
85 runs scored (5th)
While these numbers are much improved from what they have produced the majority of the year, the sample size is too small to draw any sort of conclusion yet. The offense’s performance over these final 18 games will be an important indicator of where the lineup could realistically stand in 2025 and what changes may or may not be needed this offseason.
What’s Next?
Seattle returns home for a 9-game homestand, beginning on Tuesday, September 10th. They will play two games against the San Diego Padres, four against the Texas Rangers and three against the New York Yankees.
The Mariners currently stand at 3.0 games behind the Minnesota Twins for the last wild card spot. Both the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox are tied with them, also 3.0 games out. The Twins play the Los Angeles Angels (59-84) next while the Tigers take on the Colorado Rockies (54-90) and the Red Sox have the Baltimore Orioles (82-62) next on their schedule.
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Check out our previous Seattle Mariners articles here.
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