State of the Mariners – May 10th, 2024
By Brittany Wisner, edited by Charles Hamaker
Seattle, WA - The Mariners have returned from a 7-game road trip that consisted of both extreme highs and extreme lows.
A series win in Houston was soured slightly by what may have been the team’s worst loss of the year. Despite a stellar pitching performance from George Kirby and early lead in Game 1, the Mariners were unable to seal the deal as bad defensive errors and careless baserunning mistakes would cause them to beat themselves late in the game.
The very next game was the complete antithesis of Game 1, largely in thanks to Cal Raleigh who came up clutch with a late inning home run that would propel the Mariners to a palate cleansing win.
After winning six straight series dating back to April 15th, the Mariners would see that streak snapped as they traveled to Minnesota where they would drop three out of four games to a Twins team that came into the series red hot.
As the team returns home and attempts to restart their series win streak, let’s catch up on where things stand since we last checked in on the squad.
Seattle Mariners infielder Josh Rojas has played so well, both in the field and at the plate, that the team has been getting him into the lineup at different positions. (Photo by Rio Giancarlo)
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Third Base Platoon
Yes, that’s right: after an offseason of hand-wringing by fans over what the Mariners’ third base situation might look like, the platoon pair of Josh Rojas and Luis Urías have provided the most reliability and productivity at the plate from any position group while also providing solid defense at the hot corner.
Rojas and Urías are putting up a combined 153 wRC+* with a batting average of .285, an on-base percentage of .372 and a slugging percentage of .496. That is the 4th highest wRC+ in the league at the third base position, per Fangraphs.
Rojas in particular has been swinging such a hot bat that the Mariners have elected to play him in left field on days when Urías gets the start at third base (which is typically when they are facing a left-handed pitcher). Easily the most consistent and productive hitter for Seattle thus far, Rojas is slashing .348/.417/.533 on the season for a fantastic mark of 176 wRC+.
The pair has also improved defensively. After a rocky few games to start the year, Rojas and Urías have combined for +2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)** which ranks 6th in MLB and +1 Outs Above Average (OAA)† ranking 10th in MLB.
And if defensive metrics aren’t your thing (they can be especially fickle in small sample sizes), you can give it the good old fashioned eye-test here:
Mitch Garver
If you look solely at his overall season stats, you might be surprised to find Garver on this list. And while his season certainly has gotten off to a disappointing start, he has quietly begun producing more over the last couple weeks.
Since April 26th, Garver has slashed .244/.333/.537 for a 146 wRC+ in 48 plate appearances. He hit three home runs and three doubles over that time after hitting just one home run and three doubles over twice as many games to start the season.
Outside of his continued high strikeout rate (30.5%), Garver’s recent trends are encouraging for a Mariners team who desperately needs his power and production in the middle of their lineup. If he can cut down his chase rate – particularly on breaking pitches which continue to be his biggest weakness – and regain the plate discipline he has traditionally possessed in the past, the results should continue to steadily improve.
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh hit a pinch-hit grand slam in the teams only win on the road against Minnesota during their four-game series against the Twins. (Photo by Abbie Parr)
Cal "Clutch" Raleigh
While his line over the last couple weeks doesn't look as good as one might expect – he is slashing just .122/.234/.366 with a 76 wRC+ since April 26th (47 PA) – Raleigh continues to crush the baseball when he makes contact, especially when it matters most.
We talk a lot about elite starting pitchers being “stoppers” – guys you can count on to stop a losing skid by providing a dominant pitching performance – but we don’t speak too often about “stoppers” on offense. To me, Cal Raleigh has been a “stopper” on offense for this Mariners team.
After an embarrassing loss the night before, Raleigh smashed a go-ahead home run in the top of the 9th inning in the second game of the Houston series. It was a game they needed to win, not only in order to have a chance at winning the series but also to wash away the blunders of the previous evening. Seattle had held the lead until the 7th inning when the Astros would come roaring back to regain the lead. With a struggling offense, it felt like the script of the previous game was bound to repeat; yet, Cal found a way.
In the second game against Minnesota, Seby Zavala would get the start behind the plate. The Mariners fell behind the Twins 4-2 until the 7th inning when they worked the bases loaded. Even with a left-handed pitcher on the mound – a situation in which Raleigh typically would not have pinch-hit in years past – Scott Servais turned to his stopper. Batting from the right side on a 3-2 count, Cal mashed a pinch-hit go-ahead grand slam 445 feet into the third deck. The team would continue to rally and win 10-6.
Even in Wednesday’s loss to the Twins, Raleigh once again gave the Mariners a chance when he doubled in the top of the 7th inning to bring the Mariners within a run.
On top of all that, Raleigh’s average exit velocity of 94.5 mph currently ranks in the top 2% of the league and his hard hit rate of 58.6% is in the top 1% of the league.
Cal has certainly had a feel for the big moments in the past (it’s what might just get him a statue outside T-Mobile Park some day) but as of late he has shown a truly impressive ability to consistently slow his heart rate and produce when the team needs him.
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The Strikeouts
Yes, they’re bad. The team is leading the league in strikeouts with 399 and a strikeout rate of 28.7%, which averages 10.5 strikeouts per game and puts them on pace for 1,701 strikeouts this season. For reference, the Minnesota Twins set the single-season record for strikeouts by a team last year with 1,654.
It’s an absurd stat that many had hoped would alleviate itself over time. Unfortunately, we have seen the trend continue and worsen over the last few weeks. The only Mariner starter posting a below league-average strikeout rate (which is currently about 23%) is Josh Rojas at 18.1%. Ty France has the next lowest strikeout rate for a starter at 24.8%. Jorge Polanco leads the starters with a staggering strikeout rate of 31.6%.
When a team is hitting home runs and slugging, you can live with the strikeouts to a degree. Unfortunately, the team is slugging just .362 collectively, about 30 points below league-average. This strikeout rate is unsustainable for success and the team will need to see significant improvements from just about every player on the roster in this facet.
Ty France
After getting off to a hot start, France has cooled off significantly in recent weeks. While he was hitting the ball hard and getting fairly unlucky to begin the year, his chase rate and strikeout rate have greatly inflated as of late. Over the last 12 games, France struck out 30.4% of the time while slashing .190/.261/.286 with a 65 wRC+ in 46 PA.
In order for France to be a productive player for the Mariners, he needs to hit – plain and simple. He has gone through ruts like this before but last year the slumps tended to prolong over longer periods of time than his hot streaks did. France will need to get hot – and stay hot – soon in order to stay on the field; and maybe even in order to stay with the Mariners.
Mitch Haniger
Another player who started the year off hot, Mitch Haniger has scuffled both at the plate and in the field recently.
He is slashing .146/.200/.317 for a wRC+ of 48 in his last 45 plate appearances. While he did homer in Tuesday’s contest against the Twins, he had gone eight games without recording an extra-base hit prior to that game.
Haniger has seen challenges in the field as well. He has four errors already on the year; for reference, Mitch hadn’t recorded more than three errors in a single season since 2018 (when he had a whopping eight errors on the year). Statcast also indicates a significant decrease in arm strength for Haniger this year, throwing 83.7 mph after three years of averaging around 88 mph.
Source: Baseball Savant
Health was a concern for Haniger coming into the season given both his injury history and just his age and it is possible we are seeing some of that wear-and-tear begin to affect his numbers. Hopefully the Mariners can get Haniger some more rest days throughout the week when Dominic Canzone returns from the IL.
What’s Next?
The Mariners begin a short 6-game homestand tonight where they will take on the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals.
Oakland enters the series having won six of their last 10 games, most notably putting up 20 runs on the Miami Marlins on May 4th.
Kansas City has been one of the better teams in baseball so far this year, currently sitting at a record of 23-16. Their pitching staff holds a 3.39 ERA and their offense has been
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* Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average, while adjusting for things like park factor. Average is always 100, so a wRC+ of 67 is 33% below league average
** Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) quantifies a player’s entire defensive performance by attempting to measure how many runs a defender saved, taking into account errors, range, outfield arm and double-play ability.
† Outs Above Average (OAA) is the cumulative effect of all individual plays a fielder has been credited or debited with, making it a range-based metric that accounts for the quantity and difficulty of plays made.
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