By Brittany Wisner, edited by Charles Hamaker

Seattle, WA - Whether it’s the first effects of the grueling, relentless baseball season setting in, some vendetta cast down by the baseball gods or just utter coincidence, the end of June continues to be a challenge for the Seattle Mariners, just as it has the last couple of years.

The team is returning from their worst roadtrip of the season and arguably their worst stretch of baseball yet.

After a successful homestand where they took three of four from the worst team in baseball and swept their division rival, the Mariners had positioned themselves nicely ahead of their three city road trip, hitting the road with a comfortable nine game lead in the American League West. By the time they would return home, that lead had dwindled down to just 4.5 games.

The Chicago White Sox came to town on June 10th and quickly showed why they hold the worst record in Major League Baseball. The offensive woes continued for Seattle, but a poor White Sox bullpen coupled with some clutch, late-inning heroics from Cal Raleigh and Mitch Haniger propelled the squad to a winning series, taking three games out of the four game set.

Walk off hits by Mitch Haniger and Cal Raleigh helped the Seattle Mariners as they took a series win over the Chicago White Sox late homestand. (Photos by Kevin Ng)

The Mariners called up starting pitcher Emerson Hancock from Triple-A Tacoma for a spot start at the end of the White Sox series, which allowed them to roll out their big guns of Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert in an important series against the reigning World Series champions, the Texas Rangers.

The Castillo-Kirby-Gilbert trio was phenomenal, powering through a Rangers lineup that has uncharacteristically struggled to hit the fastball this year, to which the Mariners’ starters had plenty. The Mariners swept the Rangers, giving them the biggest division lead in Major League Baseball.

And then they hit the road. For as fantastic as the Mariners have been at home this season (they are 27-12 at home), they have had some significant challenges playing away from T-Mobile Park. Specifically, the entire starting rotation outside of Logan Gilbert has drastic home and away splits:

Bryce Miller – 1.82 ERA (home), 6.28 ERA (away)
George Kirby – 2.34 ERA (home), 4.11 ERA (away)
Luis Castillo – 2.96 ERA (home), 4.59 ERA (away)
Bryan Woo – 0.57 ERA (home), 2.52 ERA (away)
Logan Gilbert – 2.66 ERA (home), 2.75 ERA (away)

Those woes continued this last week, losing all three road series to Cleveland, Miami and Tampa Bay.

They looked overmatched at times against a Guardians team that has been one of the best in baseball this year. They won just one of three games in Miami against a Marlins team at the bottom of the National League standings, and were lucky to salvage a poor-played series in Tampa Bay by taking the last game against a mediocre Rays team.

Flying home after the 3-6 road trip, the Mariners are now looking at a Houston Astros team in their rearview mirror that has won 8 of their last 10 games and crept up to just 4.5 games back.

As the team tries to close out the month of June on a high note, let’s take a look at how things have been trending since we last checked in on the squad.

Trending Up

Mitch Garver

A bright spot in the Mariners’ lineup as of late, Mitch Garver continues to look more and more like the bat Seattle acquired him to be.

Since June 10th (53 plate appearances), Garver has a .321 on-base percentage and .465 slugging percentage for a .786 OPS and 125 wRC+, per FanGraphs. He has been the second most productive Mariner hitter over this time by these metrics.

Seattle Mariners designated hitter/catcher Mitch Garver rounds the bases following his home run on Friday, June 14th, 2024 against the Texas Rangers. (Photos by Rio Giancarlo)

The biggest improvement we have seen from Garver at the plate has been better overall swing decisions. After chasing pitches outside of the zone at a career-high rate of 24.6% in his first 25 games with the Mariners, he has cut that down to 19.1% on the season. He leads the team in walks with 36, a 13.5% walk-rate which is the 10th best in the league amongst qualified hitters.

Garver has also stepped into the backup catcher role, expanding his battery-mate duties beyond that of just George Kirby. He has filled in quite nicely so far. His 2.01 pop time behind home plate is just above league-average per Baseball Savant, making up for any decrease in arm strength that may be present in his age 33 season. He has kept the ball in front of him and framed the ball well. And, perhaps most importantly, the pitching staff seems to enjoy throwing to him.

The big key with Garver will be keeping him healthy. He has sustained significant injuries in every season of his career since 2020 and most have come from behind the plate. The Mariners need his bat in the lineup more than anything and might consider finding another backup for Cal Raleigh at the trade deadline.

Dominic Canzone

The most productive hitter in the Mariners lineup over the last 16 games has been Dom Canzone.

In 44 plate appearances since June 10th, Canzone has slashed .333/.409/.538 for a team-leading .948 OPS. His 170 wRC+ and 0.5 fWAR over that time also led the team.

Canzone is still striking out at a high rate – 29.3% on the season – but has slowly begun to take more walks as of late.

Canzone is definitely best served in a platoon role as his splits against left-handed pitchers versus right-handed pitchers are stark. He has yet to record a base hit off a left-handed pitcher so far this season. If he can just continue to be a force against right-handed pitchers, he will be of significant value to this Seattle lineup.

Seattle Mariners reliever Ryne Stanek shows emotion following a scoreless top of the 9th inning during the Chicago White Sox series. (Photos by Kevin Ng)

Ryne Stanek

After a streak of somewhat shaky appearances, Ryne Stanek has been the most dependable bullpen arm for the Mariners since Andrés Muñoz began battling a mild back injury.

Over his last nine appearances, Stanek has not surrendered a run in his 7.2 innings pitched. He has given up only six hits, one walk and struck out 11 for a 0.91 WHIP. He is the only Mariner pitcher to have a 0.00 ERA over that time. Stanek’s three saves since June 10th also leads the bullpen.

His pitch mix has remained fairly consistent, aside from an increase in usage of the sinker, per Baseball Savant. He has thrown nearly three times as many sinkers so far in June (23) as he did in May (8) and has given up only one hit on the pitch. This is Stanek’s first year throwing a sinker and it would appear he is gaining comfortability with throwing it.

In a bullpen that has been taxed heavily as of late, Stanek’s steadiness has been a fantastic development for the Mariners.

Trending Down

Julio Rodríguez

It brings me no joy to report that Julio has been the Mariners’ least productive hitter since June 10th (aside from Jorge Polanco who is fresh off the IL with minimal plate appearances).

Seattle Mariners centerfielder Julio Rodriguez runs the bases following home runs during the last homestand. (Photos by Rio Giancarlo)

Among Mariners hitters with at least 10 plate appearances over the last 16 games, Julio had the lowest on-base percentage, lowest OPS and lowest wRC+, per Fangraphs.

He is slashing .172/.238/.276 for a .514 OPS and 52 wRC+ in his last 59 plate appearances. His average exit velocity has been 87.9 mph over that time, which is down from his season average of 91.7 mph.

The stat that perhaps jumps out the most is his ground ball rate. Since June 10th, Julio is hitting the ball on the ground 65.9% of the time. That is the third highest ground ball rate in the league over that time amongst players with at least 50 plate appearances.

Furthermore, Julio has been swinging at pitches outside of the zone at a rate of 39.9%, which is the highest on the team.

While there have been flashes of the superstar we know and love, this has been another frustrating and underwhelming start to the season for Julio Rodríguez. In his last two years, Julio has not quite hit his stride until the month that he shares a namesake with. As the calendar turns to July, the Mariners will hope that trend continues. A hot bat from Rodríguez would provide this team with the biggest possible offensive boost, more so than any potential outside acquisition.

Mitch Haniger

The rough stretch has continued for Mitch Haniger who has yet to produce in a manner close to that of which he began the year.

Haniger is slashing just .188/.278/.250 for a .528 OPS and 61 wRC+ in 36 plate appearances since June 10th. He has seen less playing time lately which we can hope helps to get his bat going when he does make an appearance on the field.

One positive is that Haniger is still hitting the ball relatively hard when he is making contact. Over the last 16 games, half of his balls in play have been hard hit (95 mph or more) and he has had the highest average exit velocity on the team (92.5 mph), according to Statcast. While it has not resulted in much, it may be an indication that Haniger still has something left in the tank.

Hopefully more time off his feet will lead to a more productive Haniger when the team needs him. Otherwise, Mitch’s time in northwest green may be coming to a close faster than initially thought.

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo during his May 15th, 2024 outing against the Kansas City Royals. (Photos by Kevin Ng)

Bryan Woo

“Trending down” probably isn’t an accurate descriptor for what Bryan Woo has endured the last couple weeks. It has really just been an all-around massive bummer.

The 24-year-old starter continues to be snakebit with injuries. Woo was scratched from his start against the White Sox with right forearm discomfort. Thankfully, the MRI came back clean and Woo was able to avoid the Injured List, planning to make his next scheduled start in Cleveland.

Woo labored through 4.0 innings against the Guardians, giving up three earned runs and recording just one strikeout. After the game, Woo responded “not great” when asked how he was feeling. He later clarified he was reflecting upon his performance and not referring to his physical health.

He made his next scheduled start in Tampa Bay and looked fantastic out the gate. His velocity was up across the board, consistently hitting 97 mph with his fastball (his yearly average had been 94 mph). Unfortunately, the bad luck found Woo in Tampa Bay, too. After delivering a pitch in the 4th inning, Woo felt something not right in his right hamstring. He had to exit the game and was visibly upset as he walked off the mound.

The MRI revealed a low-level hamstring strain. He will go on the 15-day IL.

The Mariners will need to fill Woo’s slot in the rotation for the next few weeks. They will probably call upon a combination of Emerson Hancock and Jhonathan Díaz to do so. The team also has three off-days in the upcoming weeks leading up to the All-Star break which should help the rotation stay on track, only relying on Hancock or Díaz for a minimal number of starts.

The Mariners will hope Woo is able to bounce back quickly after his stint on the IL. He is a vital piece of Seattle’s rotation and plays a huge role in their success when healthy.

What’s Next?

The month of June has been grueling for the Mariners. They have played 39 games in 41 days dating back to late May, and a good chunk of those games were on the east coast. The Mariners will be grateful to return home where they are 27-12 on the year.

The Minnesota Twins come to town on Friday for a 3-game set, followed by the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays. The Mariners won’t leave for another road trip until July 9th when they go to San Diego for two games and Los Angeles for three games with the Angels before the All-Star break.

Hopefully some home-cooking and much needed rest will get this Mariners ship back on track.

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State of the Mariners – June 27th, 2024