State of the Mariners – August 1st, 2024
By Brittany Wisner, edited by Charles Hamaker
Seattle, WA - After sputtering into the All-Star break on fumes, the Seattle Mariners opened up the metaphorical second half of the season with the opportunity to distance themselves from their AL West rival whom they had just relinquished a 10-game lead in the division to, in the Houston Astros.
Unfortunately, the Mariners once again failed to muster enough offense to support their pitching staff and the Astros took two out of the three game series, pulling ahead of the Mariners in the AL West standings. Putting salt in the wound, Julio Rodríguez collided with the outfield wall while attempting to track a fly ball in center field, twisting his ankle and landing him on the injured list with what would later be diagnosed as a high ankle sprain and no clear timeline for return.
And when it looked like it could not possibly get any worse, it did. The Los Angeles Angels came into town and in the first at bat of the first game of the series, J.P. Crawford took a ball to the hand from Angels starter Tyler Anderson. He was diagnosed with a hairline fracture on his right pinky finger and placed on the injured list, with a recovery timeline of four to six weeks.
The Mariners would go on to score a total of three runs over the three game set to be swept for the first time all season. They were booed loudly off the field at T-Mobile Park to end the homestand.
And yet, for as bad as everything felt, the clubhouse got a boost of life at seemingly just the right time when it was announced that the team had traded for former Rookie of the Year and All-Star Randy Arozarena from the Tampa Bay Rays. The team was in Chicago to take on a historically bad White Sox team and, although Arozarena would not join them until the second game of the series, the group appeared energized as the Mariners’ offense came out swinging against Sox starter Drew Thorpe, whom they had struggled against previously. The M’s put up 10 runs in the first game and 22 runs over the series to sweep Chicago.
While they then dropped two out of three games to the Boston Red Sox, it made for a 4-2 road trip and the team now returns home with perhaps more firepower than they left with, barring injury.
As they turn the page on what was an abysmal month of July, let’s take a look at who is trending both positively and negatively for the Mariners as they head into August.
Trending Up
Jorge Polanco
We saw some indicators prior to the All-Star Break that Jorge Polanco could finally be heating up and, sure enough, he has been the best hitter in the Mariners’ lineup since the All-Star Break.
Polanco is slashing .273/.340/.682 for a 1.022 OPS and 180 wRC+ in 50 plate appearances since July 19th. He has five home runs – the most on the team – over that time and nine RBI. He is also running just a 22% strikeout rate, a significant decrease from his 30.8% yearly average.
This is good news for a Mariner team who was counting on Polanco to be a major contributor coming into this season. The potential bad news is that after missing 26 games earlier this year with a hamstring strain, Polanco now appears to be dealing with a knee injury, according to manager Scott Servais.
“Polo’s been struggling with the knee issue for the past couple days and it really affected him today,” Servais said after the Mariners 3-2 loss to Boston on Wednesday in which Polanco exited the game in the 8th inning. “Certainly defensively [it affects him] reacting to balls and you can start to notice it in the batter’s box, too.”
The Mariners have five off-days in August which will be key for many of their dinged up players, including Polanco.
Seattle Mariners outfielder Victor Robles during the teams loss to the Chicago White Sox at T-Mobile Park on June 13th, 2024. (Photos by Rio Giancarlo)
Victor Robles
Once ranked as a top 25 prospect in baseball, Victor Robles struggled during his time with the Washington Nationals, posting below average numbers in all four seasons that he saw significant playing time. The Nationals cut ties with Robles this year, designating him for assignment on May 27th. The Mariners picked him up on June 4th.
In his 14 games with the Nationals this year, Robles slashed .120/.281/.120 for a .401 OPS and 33 wRC+.
Since joining the Mariners, Robles has slashed .360/.422/.520 in 29 games for a .942 OPS and 173 wRC+. He has a 15.3% strikeout rate over that time, the lowest on the team amongst players with at least 10 plate appearances.
It could be a classic case of a player just needing a change of scenery that has led to Robles’ recent success, but a look at his Baseball Savant page will suggest that he has also made some effective swing changes.
He has increased his average bat speed by 1.0 mph and has seen his hard hit rate jump from 16.7% with Washington to 39.1% with Seattle. His average exit velocity has also jumped from 85 mph to 89 mph. Mike Petriello of MLB.com calculated that the percentage of swings he has taken at 70 mph or greater has jumped from 31% with the Nationals to 50% with the Mariners.
Robles has simply been an unexpected revelation for the Mariners. Not only has he brought a much needed energy boost to the clubhouse, but he has stepped up in recent weeks in both the leadoff spot and in center field with the injuries to J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodríguez.
Unfortunately, Robles himself is now dealing with an injury: a “hip issue,” per Scott Servais, the severity of which remains unclear.
“I wish it was [as] easy as just a couple days down and it’ll go away,” Servais said after Robles was unavailable for the rubber match against Boston on Wednesday. “I think this is something that he’s going to have to deal with here going forward.”
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby during the teams 2-0 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on July 2nd, 2024 at T-Mobile Park. (Photos by Rio Giancarlo)
George Kirby
One of the league’s best pitchers over the past two months, George Kirby now leads all major league pitchers in fWAR at 4.1 (tied with Garrett Crochet), according to Fangraphs.
After a few tough outings earlier in the year, Kirby found his groove in early June, compiling nine quality starts in a row entering Wednesday’s game in Boston. He would unfortunately see that streak snapped when the Red Sox knocked him out of the game in the sixth inning, but he still managed to surrender just two earned runs. Kirby has a 1.47 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 18.1 innings pitched since the All-Star game.
Although Tarik Skubal and Corbin Burnes will be tough competition for the American League Cy Young Award, Kirby has certainly vaulted himself into the conversation with his performance over the past couple months.
Collin Snider
While we don’t typically highlight four players in the “trending up” section, we couldn’t leave out Collin Snider who deserves his flowers for what he has done for Seattle’s bullpen as of late.
Since being recalled from Triple-A Tacoma in early June, Snider has a 0.54 ERA, the second lowest ERA in the league over that time among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched.
On the season, Snider has dropped his ERA to 1.37 with a 1.12 WHIP and 87.4% left-on-base percentage, which leads the Mariners’ bullpen (yes, even above Andrés Muñoz who has a 87.1% left-on-base percentage on the year). Snider has been nothing short of fantastic for the Mariners over recent months.
Trending Down
Luke Raley
It has been a tough couple weeks for Luke Raley who, at numerous points throughout this season, had been the best hitter in the Mariners’ lineup.
Since the All-Star break, Raley is slashing just .138/.242/.276 for a .518 OPS and 56 wRC+. Raley had been struggling prior to the All-Star break as well, posting a .504 OPS with a 30.9% strikeout rate in the month of July.
It was a tale of two halves last year for Raley who batted .270 with a .925 OPS in the first half of the season for the Tampa Bay Rays. He then batted .219 with a .677 OPS in the second half of the season. The Mariners – who will now be relying on Raley to take over many of the reps at first base with the trade of Ty France – will need that trend to not continue this year, as Raley’s bat is a vital piece in the Mariners’ lineup.
Mitch Garver
After a solid month of June where it looked like Garver may be turning it around, posting a .779 OPS and 124 wRC+, he has hit a painful cold stretch coming out of the All-Star break.
Garver is slashing just .111/.250/.148 in his last seven games and .154/.257/.277 in the month of July. He had a 32.4% strikeout rate for the month, up from 28.3% in June.
Perhaps the starkest contrast from June to July is Garver’s fly ball rate; it jumped from 40% in June to 56.1% in July, while his groundball rate dropped from 42% to 29.3%, per Fangraphs. With his hard hit rate also dipping drastically from 46% to 34.1%, Garver appears to have fallen in a rut of producing an increased number of weak fly balls and popups.
While there are mechanical adjustments to be made, Garver recently opened up about the mental challenges he’s been experiencing as well.
After Wednesday’s loss to Boston where he left five men on base, Garver revealed he and his family had been receiving death threats from fans.
“It’s tough on myself, tough on my family,” Garver said. “The death threats and the ‘retire’ and ‘you suck’ and ‘[expletive] kill yourself’ and all that [expletive] – it’s getting old. But the only way it changes is play better.”
While Garver may not be having the year he or anyone expected of him offensively, he plays a key role for the Mariners as the backup catcher to Cal Raleigh. George Kirby especially has spoken highly of Garver since he became his primary battery-mate, and Kirby has a 1.49 ERA when throwing to Garver (compared to 3.00 ERA with Cal Raleigh and 12.10 ERA with Seby Zavala).
Mitch is signed with Seattle through 2025. It is safe to say both fans and the Mariners organization will be rooting for his turnaround and resurgence to the offensive threat they know he can be.
Gregory Santos, Seattle Mariners reliever, left the teams loss to the Los Angeles Angels on July 24th, 2024 at T-Mobile Park with “sharp knee pain.” (Photos by Rio Giancarlo)
Gregory Santos
After the Mariners waited just over half the season for Gregory Santos to return from injury (he suffered a lat strain early in Spring Training), he has now either exited a game or been unavailable for a game due to two other completely different injuries.
In just his fourth appearance since coming off the IL, Santos “felt a sharp pain in his knee” and had to be removed from the July 24th game versus the Angels. Santos had surrendered a game-tying single prior to coming out of the game and the Mariners would go on to lose, 2-1.
After the imaging on his knee “came back OK” per Scott Servais, Santos returned to the mound after a couple days off. In Wednesday’s loss to the Red Sox, Santos had to exit the game once again after “feeling something in his bicep.” The Mariners are currently awaiting the MRI results.
Seattle gave up a decent amount to acquire Santos this off-season with the intention of him becoming a staple in the back end of their bullpen. Losing Santos again would certainly throw a wrench in what they envisioned to be a lock-down group of arms worthy of postseason contention.
What’s Next?
The Mariners start a nine-game homestand with the Philadelphia Phillies coming to town Friday night. The Phillies have been the best team in baseball at various times throughout this season but have hit a tough stretch lately, losing 11 of their last 15 games.
After that, they will see the 52-58 Detroit Tigers and 57-51 New York Mets before taking off on a nine-game road trip to Detroit, Pittsburgh and Los Angeles.
The Mariners will hope to get Julio Rodríguez back from the injured list at some point over the next couple weeks. J.P. Crawford is likely to be out until at least early September, per Scott Servais.
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